Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Denver Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wright State and authoer ofthe report, said unemployment increases will continuwe at their accelerated pace into the thirde quarter of this year. The Daytomn Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Miami and Preble counties, is projectesd to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the thirrd quarter. That would drop employment to downfrom 380,400 in the firsr quarter of the year, a 2 percent The hardest-hit area is one the Daytonj area has long relied on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employmengt willfall substantially,” Traynor said.
Forecasts from the report show employmentf in the sector fallingfrom 42,300 in the first quartedr of this year to 36,100 by the third a nearly 15 percent Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in particular, Traynort said. “People aren’t spending. They are waitin g to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100p by the third quarter, down from 40,000o in the first a 2 percent drop.
Service employment, which includesa financial service, business service, utilities and leisur e service, is projected to decrease to 324,20 by the third quarter, down from 326,7090 in the first quarter, a nearly 1 percentt decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasantg time forthe region,” Traynoer said. Construction employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonap employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firsgt quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time perio d last year. One area of employment that isn’t expectexd to be hit hard is health care.
In Traynor said he expects healt care to add some jobs by thethircd quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the firs t quarter. He said the rate of decline in gross domestic productrwill slow, but remaib negative through the third quarter and mayb e into the fourth quarter of this Even when GDP does become positive again, it will take some time for employment to pick up because it is a lagging indicator of economic recovery. Traynor said there is a greagt deal of uncertainty stil on thenational level, as businessexs try to determine the impact of governmentf actions. Traynor said the problem of high unemployment is not going awayanytimre soon.
“This is something we’ree going to be living with for quite a well intonext year,” he said.